We examine use of the two point conversion in late game situations in NFL and NCAA Division I-A football. We allow for heterogeneity of teams and find that teams who are more successful running the football are also more successful with two point conversions. We find evidence that teams attempt one point conversions too often compared to the optimal strategy. This is consistent with a status quo bias where coaches are less willing to deviate from conventional approaches even when it is optimal to do so.
The paper is currently under review, and I'm especially hopeful for Joren that we can get it published.
